Changes in mean IQ between
1909 and 2013 (Pietschnig and Voracek 2015, p. 285)
Because of the Flynn effect,
average IQ has risen by 35 points over the past century. That’s more than the
difference between the threshold of mental retardation and the current average.
Does that seem plausible?
In a 1984 paper, James Flynn
showed that the mean IQ of White Americans rose by 13.8 points between 1932 and
1978 (Flynn 1984). When that increase, now called the Flynn effect, was charted
between 1920 and 2013, the gain in IQ was found to be no less than 35 points (Pietschnig
and Voracek 2015).
The IQ gain did not happen at
a uniform rate. It can be broken down into five stages:
·
a small increase
between 1909 and 1919 (0.80 points/decade)
·
a surge during the
1920s and early 1930s (7.2 points/decade)
·
a slower pace of
growth between 1935 and 1947 (2.1 points/decade)
·
a faster one
between 1948 and 1976 (3.0 points/decade)
·
a slower pace thereafter
(2.3 points/decade)
The Flynn effect began in the
core of the Western world and is now ending there. In fact, it has ended
altogether in Norway and Sweden and has begun to reverse itself in Denmark and
Finland (Pietschnig and Voracek 2015, pp. 283, 288-289).
Was it a real increase?
Average IQ has thus risen by
35 points over the past century. That’s more than the difference between the threshold
of mental retardation and the current average. Does that seem plausible?
My mother went to high school
during the 1930s, and I went during the 1970s. So my generation should be 13.8
points smarter than hers. That’s a big difference, and it should have been
obvious to someone like myself who knew people from both generations.
It wasn’t obvious. My mother
had a small library of books that she often consulted, mostly religious
literature and works like Welcome
Wilderness and Little Dorrit. Not
all of her generation were obsessive readers, but many were. And the books they
read weren’t light reading. Fiction typically had complex plots with subplots
running alongside each other, and religious books were a maze of Biblical references
that would seem obscure unless you knew the Bible, usually the King James
Version. If you could handle that, you could handle string theory.
The Flynn effect also implies
that post-millennials are 10 points smarter than my generation. Again, that’s
not my impression. Books and movies now have simpler plots and use a smaller
vocabulary—a key component of verbal intelligence. According to the General
Social Survey, vocabulary test scores fell by 7.2% between the mid-1970s and
the 2010s among non-Hispanic White Americans. The decline affected all levels
of educational attainment, so it wasn’t just a matter of dumber people now going
to college (Frost 2019; Twenge et al. 2019). The same period also saw an
increase in reaction time: since the 1970s, successive birth cohorts have
required more time, on average, to process the same information (Madison 2014;
Madison et al. 2016).
Finally, there is the genetic
evidence, specifically alleles associated with high educational attainment. In
Iceland, those alleles have become steadily fewer in cohorts born since 1910
(Kong et al. 2017). The same trend has been observed between the 1931 and 1953
birth cohorts of European Americans (Beauchamp 2016). According to the
Icelandic study, the downward trend is happening partly because more
intelligent Icelanders are staying in school longer and postponing reproduction.
But it is also happening among those who do not pursue higher education. Modern
culture seems to be telling people that children are costly and bothersome, and
that message is most convincing to people who like to plan ahead.
Some writers have argued that
the genetic decline in intellectual potential has been more than offset by improvements
to our learning environment, particularly better and longer education. This
improved environment is helping us do more with our intellectual potential. But
is there real-world evidence that we are, on average, becoming smarter? Robert
Howard (1999, 2001, 2005) cites four lines of evidence:
· The prevalence of
mild mental retardation has fallen in the US population and elsewhere.
· Chess players are
reaching top performance at earlier ages.
· More journal
articles and patents are coming out each year.
· According to high
school teachers who have taught for over 20 years, “most reported perceiving that
average general intelligence, ability to do school work, and literacy skills of
school children had not risen since 1979 but most believed that children's
practical ability had increased” (Howard 2001).
The above evidence is debatable,
as Howard himself acknowledges. Fewer children are being diagnosed as mental
retarded because that term has become stigmatized. Prenatal screening has also
had an impact. As for chess, it’s a niche activity that tells us little about
the general population. More journal articles are indeed being published each
year, but the reason has more to do with pressure to “publish or perish.”
Finally, teachers are not objective observers: they are part of a system that
rewards certain views and penalizes others. And if they reject that system,
they probably won’t stick around for more than twenty years.
A last word
I suspect we’re getting better
at some cognitive tasks, particularly the ones we learn at school—if only
because we’re spending more of our lifetime in the classroom. One of those
tasks is sitting down at a desk and taking a test. We’re better not only at that
specific task but also at the broader one of thinking in terms of questions and
answers. Previously, we just learned the rules and imitated those who knew
better than us.
Test-taking certainly made an
impression on my mental development. Long after my undergrad studies I would
have nightmares of sitting alone in an immense exam hall and not knowing the
answer to an insoluble question.
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