tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post252410513941145965..comments2024-03-22T15:55:34.030-04:00Comments on Evo and Proud: Obama: White America's bogeyman?Peter Frosthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303172060029254340noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-28024416534603644082013-05-08T03:18:04.956-04:002013-05-08T03:18:04.956-04:00The U.S. is still far from being a melting pot. On...<i>The U.S. is still far from being a melting pot. Only 10% of children born to White American women are fathered by men of other racial backgrounds.</i><br /><br />But that's what whites are 'living towards,' if you follow my meaning, and they seem determined that nothing but nothing should deter them from that path. So it may be a while a way yet but it's virtually a foregone conclusion.<br /><br />In California in 2008 22% of children born to non-hispanic white females were fathered by non-whites and one must expect this trend will continue. If 25% of children born to white mothers are fathered by non-whites then even if white TFR reaches an unlikely level of 2.5 it will still be the case that less than a replacement number of white children are born (ie 2.5 * .75 = 1.875). <br /><br />Of course, there is little reason to think that mixing might stop at 25%. It could continue all the way to 50% or so, where it seems reasonable to think it may level off as mixing bumps up against dedicated white preservationists. <br /><br /> But one should also consider whether the devoutness of white preservation really stems from racial commitment/revulsion or whether its roots tend to be cultural. That is, are white preservationists not attracted to non-whites racially, or is it more the case that the general cultural alienness of non-whites removes them from consideration. If it's the latter, that alienness will diminish over time - think of mixed children 'raised white' - which means estimates of the number of 'racially-caused' white preservationists must be adjusted accordingly. The implication for the long run is that there is nothing preventing 100% of children born to white mothers being fathered by non-whites.<br /><br />In short, Peter, the prospects are bleak. While one must be wary of spreading despair or a sense of hopelessness, but at the same time one must also inculcate some sense of urgency. Telling people "it's not that bad," in my view, only encourages a false sense of security and further apathy.Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-73762509657546343892013-05-02T17:29:04.131-04:002013-05-02T17:29:04.131-04:00Affirmative action would seem to be the opposite o...Affirmative action would seem to be the opposite of living by one's wits. And rather than being a temporary palliative, affirmative action is being applied (permanently) to more and more non-white groups over time.<br /><br />Any demographer who does not address the counterproductive consequences of permanent race-based affirmative action in hires, contracts, and admissions, is just whistling out his mass.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-55996989879503051132012-12-02T13:37:59.046-05:002012-12-02T13:37:59.046-05:00Mirco,
Yes, I think so, perhaps in 5 years time.Mirco,<br /><br />Yes, I think so, perhaps in 5 years time.Peter Fros_noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-33646470135008497432012-12-01T16:34:07.678-05:002012-12-01T16:34:07.678-05:00Thank you for the reply.
Do you think Black (and ...Thank you for the reply.<br /><br />Do you think Black (and other)'s TFR could fall under the TFR of Whites if the present economic conditions become worse and stay so for a long (5-10-15 years) time?<br /><br />In Denmark the TFR of locals is now a bit higher than the TFR of immigrants.painlord2k@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04566115851088917514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-35747627099111584252012-12-01T16:04:06.331-05:002012-12-01T16:04:06.331-05:00Mirco,
One reason is that White Americans have a ...Mirco,<br /><br />One reason is that White Americans have a lower rate of illegitimacy than other groups, except Asians (who have about the same rate). Easier access to abortion and birth control thus tends to reduce fertility to a greater extent in these other groups.<br /><br />Another reason is the existence of a high-fertility counterculture among White Americans. These are people who practice homeschooling and abstinence from mass culture. They are generally but not always Christian fundamentalists.<br /><br />The housing bubble boosted fertility among Hispanics and Blacks. This was a more or less deliberate aim of the Bush administration in its drive to increase minority home ownership (the other aim was to help out its buddies in the real estate industry). The reasoning was that if people own their own homes they will be socially more responsible. There is, indeed, a causal link between the two, but it runs in the other direction. Socially responsible people are more likely to put money aside to buy a home.Peter Fros_noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-52790754772530391812012-12-01T06:59:04.415-05:002012-12-01T06:59:04.415-05:00Interesting post.
What could be the reasons of th...Interesting post.<br /><br />What could be the reasons of the different falling rate of births for the different groups?<br />The 2008 crisis hit them all, but Whites, apparently, endured better than the rest.<br />Do you have some figures about the fertility rates between 1920-1950? Do the effect on the fertility rate was the same or similar? I found some and, apparently, yes. TBR fell faster from higher levels for Blacks than for Whites and rebound faster from lower level for Whites than Blacks.<br /><br />It appear Blacks are hit sooner and harder and recover later and less than Whites.<br /><br />The prospect of continuous economic troubles in the future of the USoA make me think the trend of faster declining birthrates for Blacks and Hispanics will continue in the future, where Whites will stabilize and could rebound a little like in the '90s.<br /><br />I note there is a bump on the graph of TFR for all groups (smaller for Whites) coincident with the housing bubble top and a sharp fall (smaller for the Whites) coincident with the house price top starting.<br /><br />Do the increase of TFR was linked to family formations? Probably.<br />This is marked for Blacks. The TFR fall before the bump (delayed births) to allow capital accumulation to buy the home. The home increase in price (people feel wealthier) and they start having children. House prices fall, jobs are lost, people feel poorer and stop having other children, New house formations are delayed.painlord2k@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04566115851088917514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-37701834078395523732012-11-30T13:48:03.714-05:002012-11-30T13:48:03.714-05:00Ben,
The U.S. is still far from being a melting p...Ben,<br /><br />The U.S. is still far from being a melting pot. Only 10% of children born to White American women are fathered by men of other racial backgrounds.<br /><br />Toddy Cat,<br /><br />"Some" Democrats, yes, but "some" doesn't mean "most."<br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />The high rates of immigration, both legal and illegal, were due to the Bush Boom and the policies that favored a mass influx of low-wage labor. If Romney had been elected, we would have seen a reboot of the Bush Boom.<br /><br />And that would have been End Game. The tipping point for the demise of White America would no longer have been in mid-century. It would have been in the late 2020s.Peter Fros_noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-12786940116431654912012-11-27T16:45:44.413-05:002012-11-27T16:45:44.413-05:00Not sure whether you can blame Obama's policie...Not sure whether you can blame Obama's policies for the decline of immigration... I'd say the economic crisis brought about these changes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-58476390797620634852012-11-27T13:24:30.296-05:002012-11-27T13:24:30.296-05:00"Most Democrats aren’t “anti-White.”
Hoa an..."Most Democrats aren’t “anti-White.” <br /><br />Hoa anyone can read the crowing of certain Democrats after the last electiom, and say this with a straight face, beats me.Toddy Catnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-66191827990203091162012-11-26T14:59:46.594-05:002012-11-26T14:59:46.594-05:00Does it matter? since the US of A is a melting pot...Does it matter? since the US of A is a melting pot destined to be the cradle of a Future Standardized American, the respective fertility rates of the different 'founder' groups is an issue that can be relevant for the next 30 or 40 years, but no more.<br />Because 'Mixity' is an irreversible process, for Whites at least, 'Mixity' wins over 'fertility rates'. <br />The speed of that is more dependant of the socio-economy than demographic factors, IMO, which means that in America, 'races' are out and social classes are 'in'. For example the financial crisis and affirmative action policies should have an effect on where the declassed middle class white people put their kids. Predictibly, more Whites should put their kids in public schools, which 'encourage' the melting pot, to say the very least.<br />But I am not even sure private schools prevent racial intermixing. All private schools do is to promote the inter-mixing of children of the same class, irrespective of their race: the rich with the rich and the poor with the poor. <br />So, my guess is that the typical 'American' circa 2080-2100 will be divided in two classes:<br />1) a standardized mixed-race 30% white, 20% latinos, 20% black, 10% asian/Indy, 10% amerindian, 10% or less jew, individual in the lower class,<br />and 2) a 'whiter' mixed-race 50% white, 25% jew, 20% asian/indy, 5%black, individual in the upper class.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /> Ben10noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-70289158725587536852012-11-26T13:22:37.793-05:002012-11-26T13:22:37.793-05:00Jim, Anon,
I too was flabbergasted by the decline...Jim, Anon,<br /><br />I too was flabbergasted by the decline. I suspect Amerindians get the worst of both worlds: (1) they are fully exposed to the anti-natalist tendencies of dominant American culture and (2) they have not developed a pro-natalist counterculture.<br /><br />About 5-10% of White Americans seem to fall within a pro-natalist counterculture. Some of them belong to the groups I listed in my post, but most seem to be generic fundamentalist Christians. The difference is that they practice what they preach, e.g., homeschooling, refusal to watch TV, and generalized withdrawal from mass culture.<br /><br />Davani,<br /><br />Yes and no. We're seeing sharp fertility declines throughout most of the world, with the notable exceptions of sub-Saharan Africa and certain Muslim countries that have a strong fundamentalist orientation (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia).<br /><br />These are BIG exceptions. Ignore them at your own risk.<br /><br />Jeffery,<br /><br />Yes, we've been there before. Time to relearn.<br /><br />Beyond Anon,<br /><br />Yes, it's difficult to predict the long-term future, but the short-term future is already with us. Certain trends will likely change. Latin American immigration will probably decline over time, but immigration from Africa and the Muslim world has much untapped potential.<br /><br />Jayman,<br /><br />I should be thanking you! Your posts have influenced my thinking on this and other questions.Peter Fros_noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-23830231076093391442012-11-26T09:21:23.879-05:002012-11-26T09:21:23.879-05:00Also:
Solutions, Again « JayMan's Blog
Libe...Also: <br /><br /><a href="http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/08/20/solutions-again" rel="nofollow">Solutions, Again « JayMan's Blog</a><br /><br /><a href="http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/liberalism-hbd-population-and-solutions-for-the-future/" rel="nofollow">Liberalism, HBD, Population, and Solutions for the Future « JayMan's Blog</a>JayManhttp://jaymans.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-60351566093295297152012-11-26T09:19:44.553-05:002012-11-26T09:19:44.553-05:00Thank you Peter for this post! This is basically i...Thank you Peter for this post! This is basically in line with what I've been saying about the Democrats and Obama when it comes to addressing the real demographic problems facing America:<br /><br /><a href="http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/victory/" rel="nofollow">Victory « JayMan's Blog</a><br /><br /><a href="http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/a-success-story/" rel="nofollow">A Success Story? | JayMan's Blog</a>JayManhttp://jaymans.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-31428159059258728942012-11-26T00:35:30.919-05:002012-11-26T00:35:30.919-05:00Regardless of what happens, White Americans are he...<b><br />Regardless of what happens, White Americans are headed for minority status<br /></b><br /><br />An important qualifier seems to have been left out: "as long as things continue the way they have."<br /><br />If whites had not reached the Americas, native Americans would still be in the majority as well.Beyond Anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-41956732193120062922012-11-25T21:24:46.434-05:002012-11-25T21:24:46.434-05:00"As White Americans descend to minority statu..."As White Americans descend to minority status, they will have to learn to live by their wits."<br /><br />Oh yeah, because we've never done that before.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-66350931592232513312012-11-25T19:27:38.080-05:002012-11-25T19:27:38.080-05:00I think Foreign Policy is pretending
not to under...I think Foreign Policy is pretending <br />not to understand the concept of demographic momentum. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-33101607564943204452012-11-25T13:43:09.562-05:002012-11-25T13:43:09.562-05:00I'm skeptical of the argument that immigration...I'm skeptical of the argument that immigration has dried up from Mexico permanently because of demographic shifts. Look at their population pyramid and the number of births in their country per year. Mexico is a very young country, with almost as many births each year (2.6 million) as there are among whites in America, despite the fact that there are nearly twice as many American whites as Mexicans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-22297042713966595102012-11-25T13:00:15.180-05:002012-11-25T13:00:15.180-05:00"I take David Brooks' view that the whole..."I take David Brooks' view that the whole world is experiencing a fertility implosion, which will be the biggest story of the 21st century (the current hype about overpopulation will die down quickly as the new global reality sets in)."<br /><br />The places that are the most overpopulated are the ones that have extremely high fertility and no signs of slowing down. Eventually the West will feel that we need to take in a billion African immigrants to get them out of extreme poverty and to replace our aging workforce.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-2036630209300339002012-11-25T09:54:54.342-05:002012-11-25T09:54:54.342-05:00Interesting essay Peter, but the trends you descri...Interesting essay Peter, but the trends you described are global, and likely have little to do with who is president in the US.<br /><br />In March of this year David Brooks of the New York Times wrote a much-discussed column called "The Fertility Implosion":<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/opinion/brooks-the-fertility-implosion.html?_r=0<br /><br />In it, he argued that all ethnicities around the world, including Arabs and Hispanics, are facing a "gray tsunami":<br /><br />"Iran now has a similar birth rate to New England... The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent...<br /><br />[In India], fertility rates in the southern parts of the country, where people are richer and better educated, are already below replacement levels..."<br /><br />And Foreign Policy Magazine argues that the diminished immigration to America is explained by the ever-decreasing fertility among Hispanics, rather than by any economic recession in the US:<br /><br />http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/11/think_again_global_aging?page=full<br /><br />"Birth rates are falling dramatically across Latin America, especially in Mexico, suggesting a tidal shift in migration patterns. Consider what happened with Puerto Rico, where birth rates have also plunged: Immigration to the mainland United States has all but stopped despite an open border and the lure of a considerably higher standard of living on the continent. In the not-so-distant future, the United States may well find itself competing for immigrants rather than building walls to keep them out."<br /><br />I take David Brooks' view that the whole world is experiencing a fertility implosion, which will be the biggest story of the 21st century (the current hype about overpopulation will die down quickly as the new global reality sets in).Davaninoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-68308258690860927542012-11-24T16:27:08.158-05:002012-11-24T16:27:08.158-05:00I was going to ask the same thing re: Native Ameri...I was going to ask the same thing re: Native Americans. Poor guys.<br /><br />Black Californians are a relatively small share of that state's population, but I was surprised when the stats for 2010 in California showed that blacks there have a lower tfr than whites. <br /><br />My one quibble is that I think it is going to be a long time before the Amish and the Hasidic Jews are numerous enough, in a country of 200 million white people, to have any effect on white tfrs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-77112250509384775482012-11-24T13:43:17.392-05:002012-11-24T13:43:17.392-05:00Anyone know why the American Indian fertility rate...Anyone know why the American Indian fertility rate has plummeted to just 1.4? Harmonious Jimnoreply@blogger.com