tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post3370302514902243212..comments2024-03-22T15:55:34.030-04:00Comments on Evo and Proud: Stumbling into the futurePeter Frosthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303172060029254340noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-6670559438147150362019-08-21T21:03:13.420-04:002019-08-21T21:03:13.420-04:00As China's working population continues to shr...As China's working population continues to shrink, will the elites push for higher wages so that labor may be used more sparingly?<br /><br />Erm, Chinese wages have doubled every ten years for the past five decades and are on track to do so this decade.<br /><br />Chinese manufacturing wages, adjusted for productivity, benefits and PPP, now exceed American manufacturing wages.Godfree Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06178509602799506224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-34420501638363291542019-08-04T05:10:09.521-04:002019-08-04T05:10:09.521-04:00China now has 33 million more males than females?
...China now has 33 million more males than females?<br /><br />Not so.<br /><br />Second–even third–children were never prohibited–second children were encouraged after birth spacing–but third children attracted a fine and did not qualify for social benefits. Though the policy had loopholes–it did not apply to minorities, rural farming families, family with a disabled parent or siblings–children were often not registered at birth and unregistered siblings were mostly girls, thirty-million girls. <br /><br />Thus was born the myth of the ‘missing girls’ which, like ‘ghost towns,’ captured our imaginations but left American political scientist John Kennedy[1] dissatisfied, “Thirty-million girls are missing from the population–the population of California–and they think they're just gone?” He compared the 2010 census figures with girls’ enrollment and graduation in 2016:<br /><br />Most people are using a demographic explanation to say that abortion or infanticide are the reasons girls don't show up in the census and that they don't exist, but we find there’s a political explanation. The point of contention is the interaction between the central state's capacity to influence local officials and local officials’ willingness to implement central policies–especially unpopular policies. We find that millions of unreported female births ‘appear’ in older cohorts [school enrollment years], and this also reflects a cultural shift regarding the value of girls in China. The ‘preference for sons’ cultural argument suggests that parents see sons as necessary for elderly care and contributions to family income while daughters are viewed as a burden. However, scholars suggest that over the last few decades, and especially since the introduction of economic reforms, daughters have contributed more to their natal families (i.e., increased their value). Still, the 1990, 2000 and 2010 censuses show that unreported male births are overwhelmingly registered between the ages of one and ten years old but that the vast majority of children registered after the age of ten are females. This implies an administrative bias towards sons whereby they are registered earlier than daughters, rather than a strict son preference (i.e., fewer daughters). <br /><br />Kennedy interviewed a farmer who introduced his elder daughter and son by name but referred to his middle daughter as ‘the non-existent one’. “He told us that his first daughter was registered but that when his second child, another daughter, was born they did not register her and instead waited to have another child. The third child was a boy and they registered him as the second child.” To keep the peace village officials, often blood relatives, turned a blind eye to children born outside Family Planning limits and left them unreported. Though the government relaxed the rural one-child policy in the 1980s, Kennedy found that village-level enforcement had already bypassed it and thirty-million girls were where they should be, in school. <br /><br />Today, more girls than boys graduate from university and, when we normalized the data for job position and seniority, gender and wage gaps almost disappear. Modern women keep their surnames after marriage, take International Women's Day off, enjoy up to twelve month maternity leave, a lower retirement age. <br /><br /><br /><br />[1] Delayed Registration and Identifying the ”Missing Girls” in China. The China Quarterly, Volume 228. December 2016, pp. 1018-1038Godfree Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06178509602799506224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-81340077427989993272019-07-31T03:30:10.081-04:002019-07-31T03:30:10.081-04:00It is hard not to notice that China's astonish...It is hard not to notice that China's astonishing fertility decline from 1967-1977 coincides almost perfectly with China's Cultural Revolution. But this is strange in a way because I don't recall that the Cultural Revolution had any particular objective with regard to fertility. By contrast, China's One Child Policy, which explicitly had a fertility objective, seems to have had no effect at all on fertility. Almost Missourinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-82780570791258477982019-07-27T20:38:54.192-04:002019-07-27T20:38:54.192-04:00About inuit higher IQ... i don't get anymore t...About inuit higher IQ... i don't get anymore that they get comparatively higher IQ due colder climate adaptation in the north american pole, because they are derived from east asian pops, which already had aquired a higher IQ.<br />Santonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-70281785426395812032019-07-27T17:04:59.853-04:002019-07-27T17:04:59.853-04:00China did well imposing laws to reduce fertility r...China did well imposing laws to reduce fertility rate but it was a remediation to combat the stupidity of uncontrolled demographic explosion, something all [industrially] developed countries had done...<br /><br />Supposedly, big brainers east asians will create a method to manage the demographic reduction without increasing the risk of extinction, just like land a airplane. Santonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-65818893570285371112019-07-27T16:59:06.550-04:002019-07-27T16:59:06.550-04:00You're are confounding kin with race. So, mixe...You're are confounding kin with race. So, mixed race people no have a kinship instinct/feeling* Santonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-78554271541605013412019-07-27T14:01:29.646-04:002019-07-27T14:01:29.646-04:00Anon,
Yes, the U.S. wants to keep China as a low-...Anon,<br /><br />Yes, the U.S. wants to keep China as a low-wage workshop for the low-end market. This is not a feasible policy unless China opens up to low-wage migrant labor. As for Trump, I suspect this is another case of him outsourcing his thinking to think tanks with questionable agendas.<br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />At this point, some population shrinkage is inevitable in both Europe and China. The question is how Europe and China will deal with this problem.<br /><br />OntheSly,<br /><br />A large percentage. China already has many immigrants from the overseas Chinese community, and I personally know second and third generation Chinese who have gone to China, usually for a temporary stay (to study or to travel). Then they find a girlfriend or boyfriend there and decide to stay for good.<br /><br />Very low fertility seems to be happening in those nations that have undergone the most Westernization and urbanization. I predict that TFRs will continue to decline in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and will reach the level of 0.75 children per woman. Japan may or may not stabilize her TFR. The picture will be somewhat different in Southeast Asia. Thailand is already down to 1.5 children per woman, and we will probably see similar declines in Vietnam and Malaysia. The holdouts will be Cambodia and the Philippines.Peter Frosthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04303172060029254340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-19450857919460945532019-07-27T14:00:58.874-04:002019-07-27T14:00:58.874-04:00Anon,
Yes, the U.S. wants to keep China as a low-...Anon,<br /><br />Yes, the U.S. wants to keep China as a low-wage workshop for the low-end market. This is not a feasible policy unless China opens up to low-wage migrant labor. As for Trump, I suspect this is another case of him outsourcing his thinking to think tanks with questionable agendas.<br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />At this point, some population shrinkage is inevitable in both Europe and China. The question is how Europe and China will deal with this problem.<br /><br />OntheSly,<br /><br />A large percentage. China already has many immigrants from the overseas Chinese community, and I personally know second and third generation Chinese who have gone to China, usually for a temporary stay (to study or to travel). Then they find a girlfriend or boyfriend there and decide to stay for good.<br /><br />Very low fertility seems to be happening in those nations that have undergone the most Westernization and urbanization. I predict that TFRs will continue to decline in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and will reach the level of 0.75 children per woman. Japan may or may not stabilize her TFR. The picture will be somewhat different in Southeast Asia. Thailand is already down to 1.5 children per woman, and we will probably see similar declines in Vietnam and Malaysia. The holdouts will be Cambodia and the Philippines.Peter Frosthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04303172060029254340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-81847840274413586862019-07-26T13:46:17.568-04:002019-07-26T13:46:17.568-04:00Also this is timely.
"A government statistic...Also this is timely.<br /><br />"A government statistics agency that conducted a survey found that in 2018 a slight majority of [South Korea] women felt that marriage was not necessary, while in 2010 a majority felt that it was."<br /><br />Seems like there's a whole anti-marriage movement over there now which doesn't really have a Western counterpart if true.<br /><br />https://www.foxnews.com/world/women-in-south-korea-increasingly-rejecting-marriage-motherhood-sparking-declining-birth-rates-and-workforce<br /><br />Births in Korea this year are down about 7% so far according to Wikipedia.<br /><br />I wonder what other East Asian nations will realize very low fertility? OntheSlynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-63594780028751318502019-07-22T11:28:00.903-04:002019-07-22T11:28:00.903-04:00China has one of the largest diasporas in the worl...China has one of the largest diasporas in the world. Their population is estimated at 50 million according to Wikipedia. What percentage of that do you think is likely to return to the motherland for jobs? OntheSlynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-40698709702903858162019-07-22T05:27:45.533-04:002019-07-22T05:27:45.533-04:00 Most Whites in West and Han in China is not kin t... Most Whites in West and Han in China is not kin to one another. Han in North China is more related to Turkic people than Han in South China. Cantonese are more related to Thai and Viet people. <br /> <br /> You discounting possibility of mass population shrinking in Europe and China. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3734925856292601239.post-79266913188112836542019-07-21T21:57:36.888-04:002019-07-21T21:57:36.888-04:00To deal with the shrinking workforce, there could ...<i>To deal with the shrinking workforce, there could be measures to phase out low-paying jobs through automation and robotization. Of course, there must first be a willingness to act. Unfortunately, such willingness is far from evident, to judge by the current denial and inaction.</i><br /><br />There is the "Made in China 2025" policy, which has triggered significant backlash from the US. Apparently the policy was designed to deal with a graying and shrinking workforce and to avoid the "middle income trap", and would involve trying to move up the tech and manufacturing value chain and incorporating greater automation and robotization:<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_2025#Reactions<br /><br /><i>The United States think tank Council on Foreign Relations stated in 2018 that it is a "real existential threat to U.S. technological leadership".[15] The Li Keqiang Government maintains that the plan is in line with the country's World Trade Organization obligations.[16] On 15 June 2018, the Trump administration imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating the trade tensions between China and the U.S. The tariff list mainly focuses on products included in the Made In China 2025 plan, including IT and robotics related products.[17]</i><br /><br />The strategy for China hawks in the US seems to be to try to keep China in the "middle income trap" and have its economy age out. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com